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Prediction for CME (2024-07-28T14:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-28T14:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32282/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and directly south in STEREO A COR2. The likely source is an M1.6 flare peaking at 2024-07-28T14:22Z from AR 3768 with associated eruption seen as dimming and post-eruptive arcades in SDO 171/193/335 and GOES SUVI 284, centered around S15W30. Arrival signature is characterized by an increase in magnetic field components from 9nT to approx. 16nT, preceded by a smaller increase from 6nT to 9nT starting at 2024-07-31T10:40Z and accompanied by a sharp increase in solar wind speed from approx. 400 km/s to over 470 km/s, as well as sharp increase in solar wind density to over 10p/cc. This is possibly a combined arrival of this CME and multiple other Earth-directed CMEs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-31T13:46Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-31T03:00Z (-6.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-07-28T18:38Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 748
Longitude (deg): 18W
Latitude (deg): 08S
Half-angular width (deg): 39

Notes: Includes elements of M2.6 AR3762 and LP M1.7 from AR3768. Likely picks up the previous slow CME, with combined arrival anticipated.
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 21.77 hour(s)
Difference: 10.77 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-07-30T16:00Z

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